Estimate how much you could save by switching to a high-efficiency heat pump. Compare your current heating costs against a new system, factor in rebates, and see the payback period. Works for Canadian and US homes.
The calculator estimates your annual heating energy demand based on your home's size and climate zone, then compares the cost of meeting that demand with your current system versus a new heat pump. The difference is your annual savings.
For fuel-based systems (gas, oil, propane), it converts your heating demand to fuel consumption using your system's AFUE efficiency rating, then applies the average fuel cost for your region. For electric systems, it divides by the COP (coefficient of performance) and multiplies by your electricity rate.
Payback period is calculated as: (equipment cost − rebates) ÷ annual savings. The 15-year figure represents total savings over a typical heat pump lifespan minus the net equipment cost.
Approximate annual heating cost savings for a 1,800 sq ft home in a cold climate, switching to a standard cold-climate heat pump (COP 3.0).
| Switching From | Annual Savings |
|---|---|
| Electric baseboard | $800–$2,000 |
| Oil furnace | $600–$1,500 |
| Propane furnace | $500–$1,200 |
| Old gas furnace (80%) | $200–$600 |
| High-eff gas furnace (96%) | $50–$300 |
| Older heat pump (COP 2.3) | $200–$500 |
For most homes, yes — especially if you currently heat with oil, propane, or electric baseboard. Those systems are the least efficient and most expensive to operate. Switching from a high-efficiency gas furnace in Alberta (cheap gas, expensive electricity) is the hardest case to make financially, though you may still break even over 15 years and gain built-in air conditioning.
It's a reasonable ballpark — within 20–30% of actual costs for most homes. The biggest variables it can't account for are your specific insulation quality, air sealing, window performance, thermostat habits, and actual energy rates. For a precise estimate, get quotes from 2–3 HVAC contractors who will do a load calculation for your specific home.
No — this only calculates heating cost savings. A heat pump also replaces your air conditioner, so if you're currently paying for central AC or window units in summer, your actual total savings will be higher than what's shown here.
The federal carbon price is currently built into natural gas costs and is scheduled to increase annually. This means gas heating costs will likely rise faster than electricity costs over time, making the heat pump savings larger in future years than what this calculator shows today. The calculator uses current energy prices only.
Current cold-climate heat pumps are already very efficient — rated to -25°C and below. Technology will improve incrementally, but waiting means paying higher heating bills in the meantime. If your current system is at end of life, there's no financial reason to wait. If it's still working fine, the math depends on your specific savings and rebate situation — which is exactly what this calculator helps you figure out.
Use our Heat Pump Size Calculator — it estimates tonnage and BTU based on your home's square footage, location, and condition. The size affects cost, so knowing your tonnage helps you get more accurate quotes.