A typical ducted air-source heat pump costs $8,000–$18,000 installed in Canada. System type is the biggest cost factor — ductless mini-splits are cheapest for single rooms, ducted systems cost more but heat the whole house, and cold-climate models rated for Canadian winters add a premium. Here's the full breakdown.
Quick answer: Budget $14,000–$18,000 for a ducted cold-climate heat pump in Canada, $6,000–$12,000 for a ductless mini-split system (1–2 zones), or $25,000+ for geothermal. Most homeowners pay $10,000–$16,000 all-in for a ducted air-source system after rebates.
| System Type | Total Installed |
|---|---|
| Ductless mini-split (single zone) | $3,500–$7,500 |
| Ductless mini-split (2–3 zones) | $6,000–$12,000 |
| Ducted air-source (standard) | $6,500–$11,000 |
| Ducted cold-climate (to -25°C) | $9,000–$14,000 |
| Ducted cold-climate (to -30°C) | $11,000–$18,000 |
| Hybrid / dual-fuel (+ furnace) | $11,000–$19,000 |
| Geothermal / ground-source | $25,000–$50,000+ |
| Home Size | Ductless (1–2 zone) | Ducted (cold climate) |
|---|---|---|
| 800–1,200 sq ft | $3,500–$7,000 | $8,000–$12,000 |
| 1,200–1,800 sq ft | $5,000–$9,000 | $10,000–$15,000 |
| 1,800–2,500 sq ft | $7,000–$12,000 | $12,000–$17,000 |
| 2,500–3,500 sq ft | $10,000–$16,000 | $15,000–$20,000 |
| 3,500+ sq ft | $14,000–$22,000 | $18,000–$25,000+ |
Size matters — an undersized heat pump runs constantly and never reaches temperature, while an oversized unit short-cycles and wastes energy. Use our Heat Pump Size Calculator to estimate the right tonnage for your home.
| Previous System | Heat Pump Cost | Typical Savings |
|---|---|---|
| Electric baseboard | $700–$1,500 | $1,000–$3,000/yr |
| Oil furnace | $800–$1,800 | $1,000–$3,500/yr |
| Propane furnace | $700–$1,500 | $800–$2,500/yr |
| Natural gas (high-efficiency) | $600–$1,400 | $0–$600/yr |
Savings depend heavily on local electricity and fuel prices. Switching from electric baseboard or oil saves the most. Switching from a high-efficiency gas furnace in a province with cheap gas and expensive electricity may not save anything on operating costs — but you still get cooling included and eliminate combustion in your home.
System type — a ductless single-zone mini-split for one room costs $3,500–$7,500. A whole-home ducted cold-climate system runs $11,000–$18,000. The gap is mostly installation complexity and equipment capacity.
Cold-climate rating — standard heat pumps lose capacity below -10°C. Cold-climate models rated to -25°C or -30°C use advanced compressor technology and cost $2,000–$5,000 more, but they're essential in most of Canada. If your design temperature is below -15°C, you need a cold-climate unit.
Home size and layout — bigger homes need bigger systems. Multi-storey homes may need multiple indoor units or zones, each adding $2,000–$4,000 installed. A simple single-storey bungalow is the cheapest to set up.
Existing infrastructure — if your home already has ductwork and central AC, a ducted heat pump is essentially a swap. No ducts? You're either adding ductwork ($8,000–$15,000) or going ductless.
Electrical panel — heat pumps need a 200A panel. Older homes with 100A panels need an upgrade ($1,500–$3,000). If you already have an EV charger or electric range, you're likely fine.
Brand and efficiency — budget brands (Goodman, Payne) cost less upfront. Premium brands (Mitsubishi, Daikin, Carrier) cost more but offer better cold-weather performance, quieter operation, and longer warranties. Higher SEER2/HSPF2 ratings also cost more but reduce operating costs.
Location — labour rates vary. Metro Vancouver and Toronto contractors charge more than rural areas. Northern and remote communities face higher equipment shipping costs.
Permits and inspection — most jurisdictions require an HVAC permit ($100–$300). Some provinces require an F280 load calculation before installation.
| Heat Pump (ducted, cold climate) | Gas Furnace + Central AC | |
|---|---|---|
| Equipment + install | $11,000–$18,000 | $7,000–$13,000 |
| Units to maintain | 1 | 2 |
| Annual operating cost (1,800 sq ft, ON) | $1,000–$1,600 | $1,200–$2,000 |
| Lifespan | 15–20 years | 15–20 years (each) |
| Includes cooling | Yes | Yes (separate unit) |
| Rebates available | $3,000–$10,000+ | Minimal |
| Net cost after rebates | $5,000–$15,000 | $7,000–$13,000 |
After rebates, a heat pump often costs the same or less than a furnace + AC combo while providing both heating and cooling from a single unit with lower operating costs. The math is most compelling when replacing oil, propane, or electric baseboard heat.
Most Canadian homeowners pay $8,000–$18,000 for a ducted air-source heat pump including installation. Ductless mini-splits run $3,500–$12,000 depending on the number of zones. Cold-climate models rated for -25°C or colder add $2,000–$5,000 over standard models. After federal and provincial rebates, the net cost typically drops to $5,000–$15,000.
It depends on your home's square footage, insulation quality, climate, and layout. As a rough guide: 1,500 sq ft needs about 2.5–3.5 tons in a cold climate, 2,000 sq ft needs 3–4 tons. But rule-of-thumb sizing leads to problems — use our Heat Pump Size Calculator or get an F280/Manual J load calculation from your contractor.
For homes currently heating with oil, propane, or electric baseboard — almost always yes. You'll save $1,000–$3,500 per year on operating costs, and rebates often cover a large chunk of the upfront difference. For homes with cheap natural gas, the economics are tighter, but you still get cooling, eliminate indoor combustion, and future-proof against rising gas and carbon costs.
Cold-climate air-source heat pumps are rated to operate down to -25°C to -30°C. They maintain useful heating output at these temperatures, though efficiency drops. Many Canadian homeowners use a hybrid setup with electric backup or a gas furnace for the coldest hours, which represents about 1–3% of the heating season.
A single-zone ductless mini-split costs $3,500–$7,500 installed. Multi-zone systems with 2–3 indoor heads run $6,000–$12,000. These are popular for homes without existing ductwork, room additions, and garages. Premium cold-climate brands like Mitsubishi and Fujitsu cost more but perform better in Canadian winters.
Federal programs offer up to $5,000+ for qualifying installations. Provincial programs vary — BC (CleanBC), Ontario (IESO, Enbridge), Quebec (LogisVert), and Atlantic provinces all have additional rebates that can stack with federal incentives. Total combined rebates of $5,000–$10,000 are common.
Air-source heat pumps typically last 15–20 years with regular maintenance. Geothermal systems last 20–25 years (the ground loop itself can last 50+ years). Annual maintenance includes cleaning or replacing filters, checking refrigerant levels, and clearing debris from the outdoor unit — about $150–$300/year for a professional tune-up.