If you have a dual-fuel system (heat pump + gas/propane/oil furnace), this calculator finds the outdoor temperature where it's cheaper to switch from your heat pump to your furnace. Set your thermostat's switchover point here to minimize your heating bill.
Not sure? Most new installations in Canada are cold-climate rated. Check your outdoor unit's model number or ask your contractor.
Check your gas bill — include delivery and carbon charges. Typical all-in rate is $0.35–$0.75/m³ in Canada.
Check the yellow EnerGuide label on your furnace. Most furnaces installed after 2010 are 92–96% AFUE.
The economic balance point is the outdoor temperature where it costs the same to heat your home with a heat pump as it does with your gas, propane, or oil furnace. Above this temperature, the heat pump is cheaper. Below it, the furnace wins.
This exists because heat pump efficiency (COP) drops as outdoor temperatures fall — the colder it is, the harder the heat pump has to work to extract heat from the air. Meanwhile, your furnace burns fuel at the same efficiency regardless of outdoor temperature. At some point, the heat pump's declining efficiency makes it more expensive per unit of heat than the furnace.
This is different from the thermal balance point, which is the temperature where the heat pump can no longer meet your home's full heating demand and needs backup. Modern cold-climate heat pumps can operate well below their economic balance point — they just cost more per BTU than the furnace at that temperature.
Most dual-fuel thermostats come factory-set with the switchover at 2–5°C (35–40°F), which is often too high. This means the furnace kicks in long before the heat pump stops being the cheaper option, wasting money on unnecessary gas usage.
The actual optimal switchover depends entirely on your local electricity and fuel prices. In Quebec (cheap electricity), the balance point might be -20°C or lower — meaning you should almost never use the furnace. In Alberta (cheap gas, expensive electricity), the balance point could be above 0°C, meaning the furnace is cheaper for most of winter.
Setting the right switchover temperature can save $200–$800 per year depending on your climate and energy prices.
The breakeven COP is the heat pump efficiency at which both systems cost the same per unit of heat delivered:
Once you know the breakeven COP, you look up your heat pump's performance curve to find the outdoor temperature where it drops to that efficiency. That's your balance point. This calculator does that lookup automatically using typical COP curves for each heat pump tier.
Set it to the balance point temperature from this calculator, plus 2–3°C as a buffer for defrost cycles and real-world efficiency losses. For example, if the calculator shows -8°C, set your switchover to about -5°C.
Almost certainly yes. A 2°C switchover means your furnace takes over as soon as it gets mildly cold, which wastes money because the heat pump is still very efficient at that temperature. Most homes in Canada should have the switchover set between -5°C and -15°C depending on local energy prices.
Yes — it shifts whenever energy prices change. If your gas rate increases or electricity rate decreases, the balance point drops (heat pump wins at colder temps). Check annually or when you notice a big rate change.
You effectively have two balance points — one for peak rates and one for off-peak. Run this calculator twice with each rate. In Ontario, for example, the heat pump might be cheaper at off-peak rates (7.6¢/kWh) down to -15°C but only to 0°C at peak rates (15.8¢/kWh). Some smart thermostats can account for this automatically.
This can happen in provinces with very cheap gas and expensive electricity (Alberta is the most common case). Your heat pump still provides value for summer cooling and is likely still cheaper than running a separate AC unit. If you want to reduce your gas dependency anyway, lowering the switchover to -5°C or -10°C increases heat pump usage while keeping your bills reasonable.
For most of Canada, yes. The heat pump handles 80–90% of your heating season efficiently, and the furnace provides cheap backup for the coldest days. In BC and Quebec, you may not even need the furnace economically. In Alberta, the furnace does more of the work. The ideal setup depends on your local energy prices — which is exactly what this calculator helps you optimize.